Tag: COVID-19

Investing in the COVID-19 Recession Era

Posted on by Franchise Strategist

Investing in the COVID-19 Recession Era
By Patrick Findaro, Co-Founder and Business Development Director of Vetted Biz

An analysis on the industries with the strongest likelihood of a rapid recovery from the recent lockdown-induced recession

Introduction

The recent COVID-19 induced lockdown led to a rise in a nationwide recession of which the country is only now beginning to recover from. Nevertheless, after researching and analyzing more than 2,900 businesses at Vetted Biz, we have found a select few industries that were able to remain stable despite social distancing restrictions. Additionally, there are also other industries expected to thrive once restrictions finish being lifted and the worst of the pandemic has passed.
The criteria used for this article when evaluating these industries addressed several factors. First, it looked at how successful each industry’s businesses were in adapting to these new restrictions. Then, it studied what opportunities these industries offered for its businesses to diversify during difficult times; and also speculated on what curve model best suited each industry’s recovery process once lockdown restrictions finish being lifted. Finally, in cases where this was possible, this study also cross-referenced industries’ performance predictions with the historical data on their SBA loans, which can be found here.

Main Findings: 3 Characteristics, One Outcome

The findings from this initial research concluded that COVID-resilient industries normally contain the following three characteristics: 1. Secure payments, which refers to having recurring revenue ensured by having either periodic contracts or offering services deemed “essential”; 2. Market leverage, which concerns having a strong brand and industry performance prior to lockdown restrictions being imposed so that businesses do not have to disburse additional costs in marketing during this time; and 3. An efficient budget, which encompasses factors such as high margins, strong liquidity and overall profitability. The article below will address in-depth, industries that are deemed either “COVID-resilient” or that will likely bounce back in the short-term once local restrictions finish being lifted. It will provide pertinent examples on how each industry is adapting accordingly, and will conclude by showing how the industries selected all have the three characteristics previously deemed necessary by this article.

COVID-Resilient Industries

Ghost Kitchen Restaurants

Ghost Kitchen restaurants – which are professional food preparation and cooking facilities set up for the preparation of delivery-only meals – have not only remained open during the recent lockdown, but also saw an increase in sales throughout this period. Amongst the numerous benefits that come with investing in a Ghost Kitchen concept, two specific ones particularly created optimal conditions for them to continue to thrive during the current situation: their efficient budget, and market leverage. Because Ghost Kitchens focus solely on servicing delivery and takeout orders, not only is the kitchen’s site required by the restaurant smaller, but also, the location of the kitchen is not as important seeing the business is not as dependent on foot traffic – both of which allow for lower costs associated with real estate.
Additionally, Ghost Kitchens can be run by as little as 2 to 3 employees, a fact that given the current situation not only further reduces costs associated with payroll, but also mitigates any contamination risks which remain a predominant concern during COVID-19. In terms of this sector’s market leverage, it is important to consider recent studies showing that 31% of consumers use delivery services at least once a week, and that 59% of millennial orders every week are either for takeout or delivery.
Beyond that, a recent study on SBA Loans found that between 1991 and 2019, 61% of food and beverage franchise loans were paid-in-full – a relatively high value when compared to other industries such as fitness centers or home services. The characteristics outlined above shows that Ghost Kitchen models are a sector of the restaurant industry that should only be expected to continue to strengthen as social distancing growingly becomes a greater part of the population’s reality.

Landscaping

The landscaping industry, which includes installing, cleaning and maintaining any territory’s green area, is another industry that has remained stable throughout the recent lockdown restrictions. Because the landscaping industry was not shut down during the recent lockdown, it was able to keep servicing its clients and generating revenue. The fact that state and municipal laws require businesses to maintain the landscaping orderliness of the territory they are operating in, means businesses offering landscaping services are treated as a priority by its commercial clients.
Additionally, as commercial businesses open, landscaping businesses are once again able to leverage their presence and ensure they can hold existing clients while adding on new ones as well. Another important factor to consider is that most services contracts within this industry are signed on a long-term basis, meaning recurring revenues is a strong characteristic of this industry. Finally, because the services provided by this industry are at the client’s specific location, the business can be operated from a small office space and is consequently able to optimize its budget by not having to allocate a great percentage of it towards real estate costs, which normally make up a large sum of a business’ expenses.

Property Management

The Property Management industry, which offers services that manage commercial and residential properties on a large scale on behalf of homeowners, is an additional industry that has proven to be COVID-resilient. Property management businesses manage owners’ commercial or residential real estate properties on their behalf through long-term contracts. These businesses deemed essential by homeowners and their long-term contracts allow for greater stability and makes it harder for clients to go back on their service contracting decisions. This allows for a strong inflow of recurring revenue.
Additionally, property management businesses can be run from a home office and by 1 or 2 employees only. SBA studies show SBA loans disbursed to businesses within the Real Estate industry also had a relatively high paid-in-full rate of 60.1% – thus further corroborating the industry’s strength despite recent circumstances.

Bookkeeping & Tax Preparation

Finally, the bookkeeping and tax preparation industry has thrived during this most recent recession. With most of the population rushing to have tax returns filed to receive government stimulus packages, this industry has recently seen an increased demand that has allowed for its businesses to leverage their market presence.
Secure payments have also been a feature of the industry due to monthly payments and renewals from businesses in need of bookkeeping services as they adapted to recent conditions and prepared to apply for stimulus packages as well. Finally, these businesses can also be run from a home office and with as little as 2 to 3 employees. Once again, bookkeeping and tax preparation businesses have shown that with an efficient budget, secure payments and strong market leverage, an industry is able to remain afloat even throughout a COVID-induced recession.

Cleaning & Maintenance

While cleaning and maintenance services might have been suspended or diminished as lockdown restrictions were put in place, this industry is likely to see the strongest and fastest recovery curve as these same restrictions begin being lifted. ¬With one of the most important conditions for reopening being ascertained cleanliness at all times, it is likely the cleaning and maintenance industry will experience the strongest market leverage, as their services are considered the utmost priority of any business looking to reopen.
Additionally, cleaning services do not require an extensive employee count or entirely sophisticated equipment. When cross referencing this industry’s performance prediction with its historical data on SBA Loans disbursed between 1991 and 2019, the cleaning and maintenance franchise industry had the highest SBA paid-in-full rate at 67.8%, once again reiterating the industry’s strength and likelihood of recovery once lockdown restrictions have been lifted.

Barber Shops & Beauty Salons

Although beauty salons and barber shops were not deemed an “essential service” during the recent lockdown and consequently had to shut down their services throughout most of the quarantine, they are likely to see a strong recovery curve as restrictions are lifted and people begin to resume their normal lives.
Grooming services especially for men, will likely peak as they return to work in need of a haircut. Additionally, women will likely seek beauty salons to address services in need such as waxing, haircut, and eyebrow design. By leveraging its market presence as people begin leaving their homes and resuming their regular self-care routines, the barber shop and beauty salon industry will likely see a strong recovery.

Children Programs

Children education and after school programs is another industry that will likely experience a strong bounce back once lockdown restrictions are lifted. Because most businesses have remained open and transitioned to online platforms, they have been able to maintain their market presence and secure a steady inflow of revenue as their help in keeping their children entertained or providing additional reinforcement to online schooling efforts became an unprecedented priority to parents also working from home.
Additionally, it is likely their market leverage will be even further elevated once families resume their daily life and parents begin to push their children towards reestablishing their regular routines. Finally, as children return to school in the Fall and parents see the education gaps left from online schooling during the spring semester, education programs in particular should experience an even greater growth rate.
Children education and after school programs have a strong leverage to secure a steady growth once restriction lockdowns are lifted, a fact that is corroborated by its relatively low SBA default loan rate, which was at only 4.2%.

Conclusion

As lockdown restrictions are lifted, a business’ ability to adapt and grow under current circumstances will likely become a strong factor in any investment process being pursued. By outlining some of the industries we have seen thrive during these difficult times, we hope to have clarified and mitigated any uncertainty that may have risen during your entrepreneurial pursuits amidst COVID-19. In sum, businesses and their respective industries that have been able to secure payments, optimize their budgets, and leverage their market presence should be considered the strongest candidates for investment as the country begins to recover from this COVID-induced recession.

Learn more here: https://www.vettedbiz.com/

How Are You Handling Your Covid Financial Anxiety?

Posted on by Franchise Strategist

It is not worth the mental energy and distress to put pressure on yourself for what is out of your hands. Unproductive thoughts will put you on a never-ending cycle of “I have to figure it out, I have to figure it out.” That kind of spiraling activity just runs down your batteries.

Combating financial anxiety during a pandemic

Courtesy of BRANDPOINT
Photo by Aarón Blanco Tejedor on Unsplash

(BPT) – In the face of a global pandemic, financial anxiety is an everyday reality. Concerns surrounding personal finances, businesses shutting down and market volatility have us navigating new waters, experiencing more acutely than ever before how our financial lives are intertwined with our mental health. Amanda Clayman, financial therapist and Prudential’s financial wellness advocate, works with people to better understand the emotional connection we have with money.

According to Clayman, financial stress, while it may be inevitable in these times, does not have to control our lives. Even in the midst of this crisis, we can practice good financial and mental health and grow in our ability to maintain calm.

How to ease your mind and overcome financial distress

Clayman offers the below tips on how to ease your mind and overcome your financial distress during the days of COVID-19.

  • Allow yourself to feel a sense of loss: These big market changes may throw a wrench in the vision you had for retirement or your 401K. This is a scary realization, and a sad one. It is natural to have an emotional response, so let those feelings come and acknowledge them as they do. By not bottling up those sensations you are better able to say goodbye to your former plans and move forward. Additionally, looking your feelings in the face and comparing them to the reality of the situation provides valuable perspective that is key in the healing process.
  • Embrace uncertainty as part of the plan: Concentrate on the here and now, and don’t think too far ahead. It is common to try to manage anxiety by making a plan, but that’s going to be challenging when the future feels so uncertain. Try telling yourself, “I’m going to make the best plan I can based on what I know now. Then I’m going to trust that I will figure out problems as they arise and ask for help when I need it.”
  • Let go of what you can’t control: It is not worth the mental energy and distress to put pressure on yourself for what is out of your hands. Unproductive thoughts will put you on a never-ending cycle of “I have to figure it out, I have to figure it out.” That kind of spiraling activity just runs down your batteries.
  • Be intentional, not impulsive: Anxiety floods your mind with fearful thoughts of worst-case scenarios, tricking you into believing immediate action is necessary to fix the problem. It may feel like you are making progress initially, but these are not emotionally grounded decisions and can lead to costly mistakes. What you need is space for perspective, to differentiate between internal feelings and external reality. Try stepping away from the computer or going for a walk before making big moves. Remind yourself that you are safe right here, right now.
  • Don’t be a hero: You don’t have to bear this weight alone. You may feel as if providing financial security is all up to you, especially if you’re a caretaker or your kids moved home to ride out the pandemic. But this is not an individual problem, it’s a collective one we can face together. So reach out — take care of each other and ask to be taken care of in return. In addition to sharing your feelings with family and friends, be in touch with creditors, landlords and service providers about your concerns. They may be able to offer a payment holiday, partial payment or interest-only payment.

Explore new types of self-care

One of the most important lessons in combating any anxiety is to remember that you will not feel this way forever. In the meantime, let’s use these moments to explore new forms of emotional and financial self-care. With thoughtful reflection, we can foster a relationship with money that promotes mental health in even the most challenging circumstances.

MATTO FRANCHISE
A Revolution is Brewing
LEARN MORE HERE:
 https://www.mattofranchise.com/

Restaurant Industry In Turmoil, But There Is A Way Out!

Posted on by Franchise Strategist

Photo by Benjamin Davies on Unsplash

In short, most operators, with a great deal of effort, should be able to generate enough sales, on premise and off, to satisfy their landlords, who will have become their partners, dependent on sales. Store level expenses will be largely variable, including rent, and there should be less upward pressure on the fixed costs at store level.

RESTAURANT INDUSTRY IN TURMOIL, BUT THERE IS A WAY OUT!
By Roger Lipton
restaurant, COVID-19, Roger Lipton, Franchise Money Maker

The world, as we have known it, is seriously changed for the foreseeable future. Restaurant and retailers will have to cope with lots of new requirements that deal with social distancing and testing.

PAYROLL PROTECTION?? NOT QUITE!

One of the current priorities is to access the Payroll Protection Program. Unintended consequences are already coming into focus. Restaurant operators realize that business will be slow after opening, which is still weeks or months away. If they spend 75% of the money, mostly for payroll and rent, in the next eight weeks to qualify for loan forgiveness, they will not have the resources to carry the predictable losses when they first reopen, and those losses will likely last for months at least. They have the option of holding the money, which will then remain a loan rather than a “grant. However, while the two year term, at only 1%, seems cheap enough, there is no way that cash flow will be sufficient to pay back the loan that quickly.

MATTO FRANCHISE
A Revolution is Brewing
LEARN MORE HERE:
 https://www.mattofranchise.com/

Some operators will therefore let their ex-employees remain on unemployment insurance for the time being, use the government capital to cushion losses after reopening, and deal with the ramifications two years from now. Other operators, will take the money, never reopen, and walk away. There are no personal guarantees, after all.

At the least, therefore, the program must be changed to allow for a sufficient payback period to recoup losses. We suggest this will happen, because the problem, and the fix, is so obvious. There are, predictably, other unintended consequences of this huge program that was implemented with such a rush, but we will leave that for another day.

RENT – THE BIGGEST FIXED COST

We are all reading about various companies, small and large, holding back rent. It’s understandable under the circumstances, and landlords realize that their world has changed as well. At the end of the day, we believe that percentage rents will be the new normal. The lessors have no real option. Yesterday’s rent structure is gone, and their alternative in almost all cases is to have empty space for perhaps years.

OFF-PREMISE CONSUMPTION BECOMES CRITICAL

Even after vaccines and treatments are in place, it is going to be quite a while before consumers are comfortable in close contact with strangers. We can be assured that dine in traffic will be at a lower level than previously. It therefore becomes critical for restaurant operators to do everything possible to build their off premise activities. Drive-thru locations, where applicable, can help a lot, but delivery (with or without third parties), catering, curbside pickup, packaged products to go are all brand building alternatives that can help to carry the physical overhead.

OVER-STORED NO MORE

Stated most concisely: there will be more closures than we have seen in at least fifty years (from today’s huge base). Far fewer chains will be expanding. Survivors will have less competition.

LABOR COST PRESSURE WILL ABATE

When the stores open, there will be less upward wage pressure than we have seen in the last few years and that we were anticipating would continue.

The cost structure will be more variable than ever before. It will take a while for negotiations to take place but rent will be based on a percentage of sales. Cost of Sales is variable and Labor is largely variable. Other Operating Costs at the store level (waste removal, bank fees, insurance, property taxes, etc.) can be negotiated lower. (It happens that I am affiliated with a Company that can help in this regard, with no up front cost.) Corporate Overhead can be scaled for the new world we are all living within.

In short, most operators, with a great deal of effort, should be able to generate enough sales, on premise and off, to satisfy their landlords, who will have become their partners, dependent on sales. Store level expenses will be largely variable, including rent, and there should be less upward pressure on the fixed costs at store level. Store level cash flow may not approach previous levels but should be adequate to support, if not enrich, a reasonable level of corporate overhead. Regional operators will have an advantage, with their proximity to the store level and their ability to respond quickly and efficiently to changing circumstances. National operators should decentralize to whatever extent possible for the same reasons. Dedicated corporate management should be able, in most cases, especially if not burdened by excessive debt, to lead their companies to survive, and even prosper over the long term.
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About Roger Lipton
Roger is an investment professional with over 4 decades of experience specializing in chain restaurants and retailers, as well as macro-economic and monetary developments. After earning a BSME from R.P.I. and MBA from Harvard, and working as an auditor with Price, Waterhouse, he began following the restaurant industry as well as the gold mining industry. While he originally followed companies such as Church’s Fried Chicken, Morrison’s Cafeterias and others, over the years he invested in companies such as Panera Bread and shorted companies such as Boston Chicken.